December 2018 - Indian Economy & Business Analysis

The Year That Was – International..

It was a reasonable yet an uncertain year for the global economy expected to end 2018 with growth rate of 3.7% as per an IMF report, almost the same as previous year. While growth rate of developed nations remains close to 3%, for emerging economies, it is expected at over 4.5%. Chinese economy, probably the … Continue reading

The Year That Was – Corporate & Industry…

The year 2018 was a better year for India Inc than 2017, yet a turbulent one. Several high profile cases of frauds, funds misappropriation, undue favor and so on came to light exposing the underbelly of corporate world. Some of these are unearthing of Nirav Modi scam, IL&FS default and undergoing investigations, conflict of interest … Continue reading

The Year That Was – Economy & Policy..

The year 2018 would be most remembered for the IL&FS crisis which emerged almost out of the blue and crippled the financial sector ultimately leading to the exit of RBI governor. It was, otherwise, a year of consolidation for the economy trying to gain back the momentum after GST and demonetization. Crude prices had been … Continue reading

Corporate Analysis – Indian Oil Corporation

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the largest company by sales in the country, recorded revenue of almost Rs 5.2 lakh crore for FY18 (consolidated). Its revenue is more than three times the revenue of entire Cement industry! Yet, profits remain subdued due to under recoveries and price restrictions but more importantly, absence of forward integration. The … Continue reading

Global Trade – An Overview..

Global trade rebounded in 2017 growing at 4.5% in volume terms much better than 1.8% witnessed in 2016 and strongest in six years. That probably gives a reason to attempt this analysis even though it is almost the end of another year. Trade in value terms was even higher as a result of sharp rise in … Continue reading

MSME Segment – An Overview..

Other than the liquidity issue, the recent RBI-government stand-off also revolved around enhancing credit facility to the MSME sector. To aid to the government’s efforts, PSBs recently announced quick loan facility, loan in 59 minutes to the segment. While the efforts are welcome, it is still a long way to go with very low credit … Continue reading

Farm Loan Waiver – Bad Politics or Good Economics..??

Farm loan waiver has again hit the headlines with recently elected chief ministers approving the scheme. The mainstream media, economists from all strata and also the RBI through its various reports seem to be severely critical of such moves which spoil the credit culture and lead to ‘crowding out’. So, are the farm loan waivers … Continue reading

Industry Analysis – Cement Industry..

Cement Industry does not seem to be in the best of health recording a decline of 6% in profits for half year ending Sept 18 even though sales grew by as much as 17%. Sales growth is in line with the figures released by CSO which showed 15% increase in volume over last year. So, … Continue reading

Index of Industrial Production – October ’18 Performance..

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has recorded an increase of 8.1% for the month of Oct’18 as per the data released by MOSPI yesterday. While monthly rate may show substantial fluctuation, average growth rate for first seven months of this financial year also shows a substantial improvement. Average growth rate, which was only 5.2% till sept’18, climbs to 5.6% after including the result for Oct’18. Other that, average rate over first seven months is better than growth rate recorded in all the years since FY13. While IIP growth is important in general, it is more important since industries account for maximum number of employment and therefore, its performance is critical in generation of more employment opportunities. Here is a look at its various components and a longer term trend analysis. Continue reading Index of Industrial Production – October ’18 Performance..

Jet Airways – Can it avoid a Crash Landing..??!

Amidst the reversal for the ruling party in state elections and the surprise resignation of RBI governor, it is difficult to focus on anything else! Yet, here is an attempt to analyze the crisis being faced by Jet Airways precipitated by loss of over Rs 1,000 crore in each of two quarters of this financial year. The crisis is a cause of concern not just for the company but also all followers of aviation sector. The sector, despite being a high profile one, hasn’t been able to establish itself financially and accounts for a number of failed businesses overlast decade or so. Here is a look at its performance and comparison with another airline which is profitable.