Indian economy seems to have regained good part of its momentum, adjusting to the new normal, as per the data released by MOSPI today. However, the second wave may have, again, dented its prospects of making up for the losses in FY22. Much will depend on the speed of vaccination and how it improves the prospect of high-contact sectors. Here is a brief look at the GDP performance. Continue reading GDP Performance Analysis – March’21
Category: Economy
Global Trade – Analyzing the Covid Impact & Subsequent Recovery
Global trade has managed second successive quarter of recovery as per the latest UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) report released a few days back. Global trade in goods in Q1’21 (Jan-March) increased by 10% over Q1’20 and more importantly, 3% over Q1’19, the pre-pandemic level. Yet, it would be too early to conclude that global trade and associated segments are out of the woods. Here is a look at some of the details. Continue reading Global Trade – Analyzing the Covid Impact & Subsequent Recovery
FY21 Inflation Trend Analysis
The year 2020-21, hit by the pandemic, was also unusual as the economy recorded sharp increase in inflation (CPI) even as MPC persisted with ultra-loose monetary policy. As per the provisional data, average CPI inflation for FY21 rose to 6.2%, outside the mandated price band, from 4.8% in the previous year. While WPI was relatively … Continue reading FY21 Inflation Trend Analysis
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Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code (IBC) – Analyzing the Performance
Bankruptcy process under IBC (insolvency & bankruptcy code) restarted late last month, is facing another challenge with resurgence of the pandemic and call for suspension of IBC. The code had been suspended in March last year to protect the companies who were facing issues due to the pandemic. The code has faced several challenges after … Continue reading Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code (IBC) – Analyzing the Performance
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Analyzing Jobs Lost During Covid-19 – PLFS Survey
The release of periodic labor force survey (PLFS) data for April-June’20 quarter, the peak lockdown months, gives a comprehensive view of the extent of job losses. As per the survey, urban unemployment rate reached a level of 20.9% during the quarter. The dis-aggregated figures reveal that stress was as high as 59% for specific segment at state level. Here is a look at some of the details. Continue reading Analyzing Jobs Lost During Covid-19 – PLFS Survey
State of the Economy – Tracking the Uneven Recovery
Even after recording GVA growth of 1.0% during Dec’20 quarter (GDP growth – 0.4%), the uncertainty regarding continued momentum in recovery remains high. The available high-frequency data for Jan-Feb’21 reinforces the fear with slight moderation in growth in some of the segments. Another cause of worry is the sharp increase in WPI inflation which touched 4.2% in Feb’21, the highest in over two years. Here is a look at the performance of some of the key indicators. Continue reading State of the Economy – Tracking the Uneven Recovery
GDP, Dec’20 Quarter – Too Little To Celebrate…
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for quarter ended Dec’20 (Q3’FY21) recorded a marginal growth of 0.4% as per the data released by MOSPI (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation) today. Even though the growth, after two quarters of decline of 24.4% and 7.3%, is a relief, it looks quite tentative. For one, this is lower than the general estimates of clocking 1-1.5%. Second, it was propped up by increase in government spending, without which, it would have again contracted. And most importantly, some important sectors continue to remain in the negative zone – leading to K shaped recovery – which can pull down other sectors if persists for long. The highlight of the quarter is strong pickup in financial & other services and construction, both of which grew at 6%+ after decline of over 7% in Q2’21. Here is a brief analysis of GDP and its constituents. Continue reading GDP, Dec’20 Quarter – Too Little To Celebrate…
Power Distribution Companies – The Elephant In The Room
Chairman of the Fifteen Finance Commission called state distribution companies (discoms), “The Elephant in the room”, in an interview recently. Indeed, discoms are in a dire state, operating with AT&C (aggregate transmission & commercial) losses of over 22% and accumulated losses of close to Rs 4 lakh crore. To improve their viability, the Finance Minister … Continue reading Power Distribution Companies – The Elephant In The Room
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Food Corporation of India – Managing Inefficiencies
FCI (Food Corporation of India) must be heaving a sigh of relief with revised allocation of Rs 3.44 lakh crore during FY21 as subsidy against initial allocation of Rs 78,000 crore made in Feb’20. This would not only help it meet this year’s revenue gap but also clear part of its past overdues. The financial … Continue reading Food Corporation of India – Managing Inefficiencies
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Corporate Tax Exemptions – Desirable or Not?
The Finance Commission has expressed concern about the low tax/GDP ratio in India and has discussed in detail, ways to reduce this. Other than low tax base, significant amount of tax revenue is lost through invocation of large number of tax exemptions companies receive. (As an effort to plug this, the Finance Minister added an … Continue reading Corporate Tax Exemptions – Desirable or Not?
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